A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs. While the number of new prescriptions for individuals with diabetes is declining, the proportion of prescriptions for those without diabetes is on the rise.
Researchers caution that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps control blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes management. In 2021, however, the FDA extended approval to include Wegovy for weight loss.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. In contrast, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that the data reflects a significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity management. However, this trend raises concerns regarding access for diabetic patients who still require these treatments.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not comprehensively represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to weight loss of up to 26%. The soaring sales of these medications have catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into becoming two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the increasing demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing significantly to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated uptake among about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing approximately 9% of the population.