A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 medications, showing an increase in prescriptions for individuals without diabetes while those with diabetes are seeing a decline. The authors of the study express concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, they gained further attention in 2021 when the FDA endorsed Wegovy for weight management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, key players in the GLP-1 market, are currently facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions studied medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and emphasizes the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients still have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged thanks to their ability to suppress appetite and help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have transformed Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions in expanding their production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also project that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., nearly 9% of the population, are expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.