A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, with an increasing number of individuals without diabetes receiving these treatments while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers warn that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite, originally approved primarily for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy for weight loss, further broadening the scope of GLP-1 medications.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the rising demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
A team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these drugs for treating obesity, reflecting a significant shift in public health focus. However, this also raises concerns about ensuring access to GLP-1 drugs for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent a national cross-section of the population.
Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing up to a 26% reduction in body weight. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has resulted in some patients experiencing difficulties in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. adopting these medications by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.