A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant shift in the prescribing patterns of GLP-1 drugs, showing an increasing number of prescriptions for people without diabetes while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, their use expanded in 2021 when the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, demand for these drugs has surged, leading both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to face challenges in meeting production needs.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a drop in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend highlights a shift in how healthcare providers view these medications for obesity treatment, while also raising concerns about the potential for medication shortages that could impact access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not reflect the national landscape. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight-loss benefits, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The boom in sales of GLP-1 medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created challenges for some patients trying to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption of these drugs rising to about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing approximately 9% of the population.