A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, designed to mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their use by approving Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift indicates more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, which is a significant public health development. However, it also highlights the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients retain access to these important treatments.
The study relied on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for GLP-1 drugs has propelled both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Despite their efforts, many patients find it challenging to fill their prescriptions. To address this demand, both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that about 31.5 million Americans, or approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.