A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concerns about potential shortages of these treatments as a result of this shift.
GLP-1 medications, which were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. The FDA expanded their approval in 2021 to include weight management, particularly with the drug Wegovy.
Both pharmaceutical giants, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are facing challenges in meeting the soaring demand for GLP-1 drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who made at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 prescriptions for patients with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to just over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share for those without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates a significant public health shift, with more healthcare providers recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this trend raises concerns about ensuring continued access to these drugs for diabetic patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not reflect national trends accurately. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, prompting users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight.
The increasing demand for GLP-1 medications has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but it has concurrently created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing significantly to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.