A hurricane watch and storm surge warnings of up to 15 feet were issued for nearly all of Florida’s western coastline on Tuesday as Tropical Storm Helene formed over the Caribbean Sea, making its way towards the Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center confirmed the storm’s formation in an advisory at 11 a.m., predicting that Helene will strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday. Officials are advising the public to prepare and remain cautious.
The hurricane watch spans from Indian Pass in northwest Florida, near Panama City, to Englewood, including Tampa Bay.
As of 2 p.m. ET, the storm was located approximately 115 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and moving northwest at 12 mph.
If Helene develops into a hurricane, it will mark the fourth to strike the U.S. this year. The storm’s center is expected to traverse the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night and enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Helene could reach the Gulf Coast of Florida by Thursday, with the potential to become a major hurricane, classified as Category 3 or higher, characterized by winds between 111 mph and 129 mph.
Forecasts indicate that Helene will bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with some areas receiving up to 12 inches of rainfall. In the southeastern U.S., predictions suggest 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts nearing 10 inches, leading to flash and urban flooding. Additionally, the storm is expected to create a storm surge that could result in flooding as water moves inland from the coast.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 counties on Monday, which was later expanded to 61 counties on Tuesday. Sandbags are being distributed in Tallahassee, Gulfport, and Henrico County in preparation for potential flooding.
DeSantis has also requested a pre-landfall emergency declaration from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which President Joe Biden approved on Tuesday. The governor mentioned that the storm prediction models vary widely, with some suggesting it may become a tropical storm while others indicate it could develop into a significant Category 4 hurricane.
Areas in the Big Bend and Panhandle are particularly cautioned to prepare for possible direct impacts. Meteorologist Jonathan Vigh from the National Center for Atmospheric Research noted that early data indicates a 45% chance of the storm’s center passing near Tallahassee.
DeSantis urged residents to prepare by filling gas tanks, stocking food supplies, securing outdoor items, and understanding evacuation zones. Currently, 18,000 line workers are on standby to restore power, while 3,000 National Guard soldiers are ready to assist, alongside activated Florida State Guard units and rescue teams.
Florida A&M University, Tallahassee State College, and Florida State University have canceled classes and closed their campuses. Hillsborough County Public Schools in the Tampa area will also close on Wednesday and Thursday.
In the southeastern Gulf Coast, Sarasota County, Charlotte County, and the City of St. Petersburg have declared local states of emergency. Sarasota County plans to issue evacuation alerts for specific communities and manufactured home areas beginning Wednesday morning. Charlotte County has mandated evacuations for barrier islands, flood-prone areas, and residences vulnerable to high winds. The City of St. Petersburg has implemented mandatory evacuations for certain healthcare and long-term care facilities.
Hernando County, located north of Tampa Bay, has also announced mandatory evacuations for areas west of US-19 starting Wednesday morning.
Tampa General Hospital, the region’s only Level I trauma center, has begun installing an AquaFence, a water-tight barrier capable of withstanding storm surges up to 15 feet, to protect vulnerable hospital areas.
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency on Tuesday as the southern part of the state fell under a tropical storm watch. This executive order aims to enhance first responders’ preparedness for the storm.
The National Hurricane Center projects the storm to move into Georgia by early Friday, reaching the Atlanta area by afternoon, albeit weakened from its potential status as a major hurricane, with heavy rainfall being the primary concern.
Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, advised that areas in Georgia along the storm’s expected path should be mindful of potential flooding as it approaches inland.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted a highly active hurricane season, estimating between 17 to 24 named storms, with 8 to 13 likely evolving into hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Factors contributing to increased activity include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, diminished vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds, and a more active West African monsoon.
In Helene’s case, record warm waters are expected to amplify its intensity. Climate Central reports that unusually warm sea surface temperatures along the storm’s likely trajectory through the Northern Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico have been exacerbated by human-induced climate change, with rapidly intensifying hurricanes becoming more frequent in warming conditions.
If Helene does evolve into a hurricane, it will mark the fifth such storm to make landfall in Florida over the past three years.