A new prediction market on Polymarket is asking traders to forecast how many days in May 2026 the AI assistant Claude will experience downtime, with resolution tied directly to the service’s own historical status page. The market opened on March 30, 2026 at 3:39 PM ET and will settle based on the color-coded daily status boxes on Claude’s uptime history (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) for the claude.ai component.
Under the market’s rules, a day counts as having experienced downtime if, once that day is finalized, its status box is any color other than green. Only the claude.ai component’s daily boxes will be used for settlement; status information for other Claude components is explicitly excluded. A day is considered finalized not at midnight but when the following day’s status box displays a color other than the grey used for days that have not yet begun — meaning traders must wait for the subsequent day’s status update to know whether the previous day will be counted.
The market will normally resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized; that would be after the May 31 box is no longer grey because the June 1 box has an actual color. As an operational safeguard, Polymarket set a fallback: if the May 31 box has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve based on whichever May days have been finalized by that cutoff. The primary and sole resolution source named in the contract is the Claude Status historical uptime page for claude.ai.
At launch the market listed a trading volume of $659 and designates an on-chain resolver address of 0x69c47De9D… Traders and observers who want to monitor the market’s likely outcome should watch the uptime page daily and note any days showing a non‑green status once they have been finalized by the appearance of the next day’s color. Because finalization depends on the follow‑on box changing from grey, delays or omissions in the status feed for early June could leave the market in an ambiguous state until the June 7 fallback date.
The market is another example of prediction‑market activity aimed at quantifying the real‑world reliability of commercial AI services. Downtime counts here are binary at the day level: any color other than green after finalization means the day is scored as having downtime, regardless of duration or severity within that 24‑hour period. That definition narrows the settlement criteria but means partial outages that don’t trigger a colored status change won’t affect the market.
Participants should be aware of a couple of edge cases spelled out in the rules: only the claude.ai component matters, and the status page’s color scheme — green, non‑green, grey — is determinative. This market will remain open through May 2026 and will only clear once the necessary finalizations occur or the June 7 backup resolution deadline is reached.