Following Poland’s parliamentary elections in autumn 2023, a sense of euphoria swept through the country as citizens celebrated the ousting of the Law and Justice party after eight years. The election saw a remarkable voter turnout of 75%, reflecting the people’s desire for change. However, less than two years later, this enthusiasm has waned significantly. In June, Karol Nawrocki, the candidate aligned with the Law and Justice party, won the presidential runoff with 50.89% of the votes, prompting concerns over the stability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s liberal government.
Recent polls indicate that nearly half of the populace would prefer Tusk to step down, highlighting the fragility of his coalition. The optimism surrounding Tusk’s return to power appears to be overshadowed by discontent, as many citizens feel let down by unfulfilled promises and a lack of clear direction. This situation reflects a broader trend seen in various nations, where newly elected liberal leaders face immense challenges in reversing the legacies left by populist regimes.
The aftermath of populist rule often resembles a complex recovery process, filled with legal and institutional hurdles. In Poland, Tusk’s administration has grappled with dismantling legal frameworks established by his predecessors, which sought to undermine democratic institutions. As a result, the government’s focus on correcting past mistakes may detract from developing an inspiring vision for the country’s future. The absence of such a vision creates an opening for right-wing populists to regain traction.
Tusk’s attempt to navigate this precarious landscape has involved continuing certain populist policies, such as direct financial support for families and large infrastructure projects. However, this ambiguity may alienate voters who seek more radical changes. Notably, Tusk’s failure to liberalize Poland’s abortion laws, combined with a nationalistic approach towards migration, has led to a diminishment of public support.
As another election looms, the trajectory for Poland’s liberal democracy seems uncertain. Observers note a parallel with past leaders who, while praised internationally, struggled to maintain popularity at home. A successful future for Tusk and other liberal leaders will require reimagining democracy and addressing contemporary political challenges in the digital age.
To safeguard democracy, it is essential for liberal parties to articulate a forward-thinking agenda that resonates with voters, especially the younger demographic. The Polish case underscores the need for more than just a defensive election strategy; it calls for offering a compelling vision for the future that surpasses mere opposition to populism. Only then can liberal democracies hope to thrive amid the shifting political landscape.