CBOS poll shows PiS and Civic Coalition tied at 30% each; Confederation 12%; Left 7%; Razem 5%
Five parties would enter the Sejm in this survey, while Polska 2050 and PSL would fall below the electoral threshold. Confederation Korony Polskiej is at 3%, with 9% of respondents unsure. About 84% of Poles said they would take part in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
In the question “Which party or political group would you vote for in the Sejm elections?” the ex aequo leaders are Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (Law and Justice) and Koalicja Obywatelska (Civic Coalition), both at 30%. The podium is completed by Confederation with 12%. Representing the left, Lewica is at 7% and Razem at 5%.
Polska 2050 (2%) and Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe PSL (1%) would not cross the electoral threshold according to this poll. In 2023 the two parties formed Third Way, which polled over 14% in parliamentary elections. Outside the Sejm would be Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, at 3%, with 9% of respondents undecided or saying they weren’t sure.
“The second of the summer months brought a slight deepening of political polarization and boosted the two main blocs that have long driven the divide in our public life,” notes CBOS in its analysis. Compared with July, both PiS and KO gained momentum, while the biggest loss was for Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, dropping 5 percentage points.
CBOS data also show that 84% of respondents are interested in participating in parliamentary elections. The study was conducted by computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI, 90% of interviews) and online interviews (CAWI, 10%), between August 18–21, 2025, on a sample of 1,000 adults in Poland.
Commentary: The poll reinforces a persistent two-block dynamic in Polish politics, with high voter engagement. If these trends hold as campaigns intensify, PiS and KO could remain the dominant forces, while Polska 2050 and PSL continue to struggle to cross the threshold. The presence of a notable share for Konfederacja Korony Polskiej and a steady level of undecideds could still influence outcomes in tightly contested districts.
Summary: The latest CBOS poll finds a tight two-way race at the top, with PiS and KO each at 30%, a solid 12% for Confederation, and smaller shares for Lewica (7%) and Razem (5%). Polska 2050 and PSL remain below the threshold, while 84% of Poles say they plan to vote. The shift from previous readings shows increased polarization and a minor gain for the two leading blocs.