Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, is set to debate former President Donald Trump, her Republican opponent, on September 10 in Philadelphia. In previous elections, specifically 2020 and 2022, voter turnout in this largely Democratic city was significantly lower than the state average.
As the 2024 election approaches, Democrats in Pennsylvania face their weakest voter registration advantage over Republicans in decades. Following Joe Biden’s departure from the presidential race in late July, Democratic voter registration numbers have begun to rise, but Republicans are experiencing even faster growth.
This means that while Democrats are making some gains, their overall share of voters continues to decline, reflecting losses from the past four years. Data from the Pennsylvania Department of State, spanning back to 1998, indicates that Democrats currently hold only a 4% advantage over Republicans—44% compared to 40.2%. This is down from a high of 51.2% in 2009. Additionally, the number of unaffiliated and third-party voters has increased from 11.9% in 2009 to 15.7%.
Republican activists believe this uptick in voter registration strengthens the case for a potential Trump victory in Pennsylvania. Conversely, Democrats assert they have observed promising trends since Harris entered the race, despite the decline in registered voters.
Both parties are initiating registration drives ahead of Pennsylvania’s October 21 registration deadline, while also focusing on mobilizing those already registered. Democrats, particularly, are concerned that low turnout in populous Philadelphia could cost them the state.
Experts point out that voter registration is an imperfect indicator of political engagement. Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh, describes registration patterns as “noisy,” influenced by factors beyond immediate voter enthusiasm. She attributes the current decline in Democratic registration to a correction from past surges, such as during the post-New Deal era and the Obama administration, when large numbers of traditionally low-turnout voters registered.
As the October registration deadline approaches, Republicans boast nearly 40,000 more registered voters than they had in November 2020. In contrast, Democrats trail by approximately 303,000 voters compared to their 2020 status.
During election cycles, numerous registration and get-out-the-vote initiatives emerge, particularly in swing states. Some organizations focus on registration, while others prioritize engagement. Early Vote Action, a national GOP group led by Scott Presler, has been active in Pennsylvania, setting up voter registration tables and utilizing volunteers for outreach efforts.
Despite the challenges in building trust in the electoral process, especially after years of claims that it is flawed, Presler and his team maintain that Republican registration efforts reflect genuine sentiments among voters.
Activists from both parties are keenly focused on ensuring eligible voters cast their ballots. At a recent event organized by the South Philly Voter Project, volunteers aimed to enhance turnout among Democratic, unaffiliated, and third-party voters, using deep canvassing methods to engage their neighbors in meaningful conversations about the importance of voting.
Experts, like Putnam, note that there are promising signs for Republicans while highlighting challenges for Democrats in their registration efforts. Although there has been a net increase in registered Democrats since Biden’s exit, Republicans and independent voters are registering at a quicker pace.
Newly registered independent voters may present unpredictable dynamics in the upcoming election, as they do not inherently align with either major party. This uncertainty adds another layer to Pennsylvania’s political landscape, making these independent votes highly contested.