There is a growing sense of optimism for the New England Patriots as they prepare for the upcoming NFL season, fueled by significant changes within the organization. With a revamped coaching staff, increased investment in free agency, and a 2025 draft class that has received high praise, fans are wondering if this could be the year the Patriots return to the playoffs.
Historically, the NFL playoffs have seen at least four new teams each season since 1990, a trend that points to the possibility of fresh contenders. Last year featured four newcomers: the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders, and Minnesota Vikings. The Patriots, who last reached the postseason in 2021—their first year with quarterback Mac Jones—are looking to break a two-year playoff drought.
The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) currently gives the Patriots a 32 percent chance of making the playoffs, placing them 12th among the 16 teams in the AFC. For comparison, other teams with higher probabilities to reach the postseason include the Buffalo Bills at 81.2 percent and the Kansas City Chiefs at 76.3 percent. Despite having the easiest schedule in the AFC and the third-easiest overall based on the previous season’s win percentages, the FPI remains skeptical about the Patriots’ playoff aspirations.
Winning the AFC East presents a significant challenge, as the Buffalo Bills have dominated the division for the past five seasons. The most realistic path for the Patriots to secure a playoff berth is likely via a wild card spot, necessitating at least nine wins. Analyzing their schedule reveals potential winnable games, including matchups against teams like Las Vegas, Carolina, and the New York Jets. They also face some tough opponents, such as the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens.
The Patriots have the potential to achieve a 10-win season, especially with a stronger defense and improved talent surrounding franchise quarterback Drake Maye. The coaching changes, under new head coach Mike Vrabel, could further enhance the team’s performance.
As they kick off the season with a favorable home schedule, a strong start will be essential for the Patriots in their quest for a playoff return. With a blend of a favorable schedule, a bolstered roster, and enhanced coaching, there is a tangible path for New England to rebound and compete for a postseason spot this year. The upcoming season could very well become a pivotal moment in this franchise’s journey back to prominence.