The Baylor Bears are set to face off against the St. John’s Red Storm in Paradise, Nevada, as part of the Players Era Festival, with the game scheduled to tip off at approximately 4:30 p.m. ET on truTV. St. John’s enters the match as the favorite, with a spread of -6.5 points and a moneyline of -260. The total points for the game have been set at 161.5.
In their previous encounter at the festival, Baylor secured a victory against Creighton, bringing their season record to an impressive 5-0. Head Coach Scott Drew is cultivating a strong team dynamic, largely facilitated by the on-court leadership of point guard Obi Agbim, who is noted for his playmaking and scoring ability. Alongside him, Cameron Carr has emerged as a standout performer, with an average of 21.7 points per game, positioning him among the top scorers nationally.
The Bears’ lineup boasts an array of athletic talent, allowing them to effectively navigate defensive matchups, particularly against slower opponents like St. John’s. Their strategy will likely revolve around using their quickness to exploit defensive weaknesses, as demonstrated in their previous win against Creighton where even center Michael Rataj contributed significantly with five assists.
Baylor’s defensive prowess also merits attention; under the guidance of assistant coach Ron Sanchez, the team has adopted an efficient pack line defense, ranking 35th nationally in defensive efficiency—their best in three years. This defensive strength could give them an edge against St. John’s high-scoring threats.
On the other side, St. John’s struggled in their opening game against Iowa State, raising doubts about the cohesion of a roster filled with potential yet lacking a clear fit. The team features a strong frontcourt with players like Zuby Ejiofor, who is the preseason Big East Player of the Year, and Bryce Hopkins, both of whom need to shine for St. John’s to avoid consecutive losses.
However, concerns loom over the guard positions. Coach Rick Pitino is grappling with inconsistencies and a rotating cast in the backcourt that currently includes Dylan Darling, who is finding it challenging to navigate more athletic teams. St. John’s must harness the strengths of their big men to maintain control of the game, especially on the boards where they dominate offensive rebounds, while also addressing their defensive lapses that allowed higher scoring efficiency against Alabama and Iowa State.
In light of these dynamics, the betting analysis leans towards Baylor covering the spread. Despite St. John’s perceived talent, they still face critical operational issues, particularly in establishing defensive strategies and leveraging their manpower effectively against Baylor’s speedy gameplay. The Bears are expected to utilize swift high-ball screens and recruit their efficient shooting to exploit the Red Storm’s vulnerabilities, potentially leading them to victory.
For those placing bets, the recommendation is to consider Baylor at +5.5, with a cautionary note to play the spread to +3, reflecting confidence in their ability to challenge St. John’s in this match-up.