Pafos and Red Star Belgrade head into a tantalising second leg after a ferocious first encounter that left plenty of attacking promise on display. In that opening clash, Pafos fired 14 shots, with three on target and two finding the back of the net, while controlling 42% of the ball and posting an expected goals total of 1.85. Red Star, by contrast, pressed with more intent, registering 26 shots but managing only one finish at the end of the day. Their xG for the game stood at 2.38, highlighting the volume of chances they created despite the setback.
The numbers from the first leg underscore the contrast in approaches. Pafos’ defensive resilience under sustained pressure helped them stay competitive, even as Red Star dominated proceedings. The Cypriot side’s home form last season was prolific, scoring 38 goals across 18 home games (roughly 2.1 per match), a stat that supports the idea they can breach the Red Star backline again in the return leg. Red Star, meanwhile, have shown they can generate high-quality chances, and their opening phase of the Serbian Super Liga season has been productive, with 16 goals in their first games at an average of 4.0 per game and an xG of 2.38 in the loss to Pafos.
Important context for the second leg is that away goals no longer decide European ties. If the teams finish level on aggregate after 180 minutes, the tie would proceed to extra time and potentially penalties. That means both sides will push to secure a decisive advantage over the full two legs rather than counting on away goals.
What to watch for in the rematch:
– Pafos’ attacking intent: Having shown they can hurt Red Star, they’ll look to translate their home-game threat into another productive performance, especially if they can convert more of their chances.
– Red Star’s finishing and tempo: With higher volume and strong underlying xG, they’ll aim to convert chances more efficiently and apply pressure consistently to overturn the deficit.
– Midfield balance and transitions: The leg could hinge on how well each side controls the central areas and follows up on good build-up with sharp final actions.
Summary and outlook:
The tie remains wide open, with Pafos’ proven capacity to breach defences and Red Star’s demonstrated danger in front of goal. The second leg promises an open, high-stakes contest where efficiency in front of goal and the ability to manage moments of pressure will determine which side advances. If Pafos repeat their first-leg discipline while converting key opportunities, and Red Star amplify their finishing, supporters could be in for an evenly matched, high-octane finale.