As the fall season rolls in, many are beginning to wonder what the winter will bring. Questions about whether it will be a harsh winter abound, with many rarely expressing the hope for a milder season ahead. This winter, forecasters anticipate a cooler and wetter outlook for the Pacific Northwest, though particulars remain uncertain beyond a 7-10 day window.
Reflecting on recent winters, the metro area experienced several significant weather events over the past five seasons, including four major “snow/ice/cold-pocalypse” occurrences that caused prolonged disruptions in city life. While last winter, 2024-2025, was relatively mild with only minor snow accumulations and no significant storms, many are hoping for a less dramatic winter this time around.
As the forecaster enters their 35th winter predicting weather in Northwest Oregon, insights into the upcoming winter suggest variations influenced by larger climatic phenomena. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/La Niña conditions play pivotal roles in shaping weather patterns. This winter is likely to be characterized either by a weak La Niña or slightly cooler than neutral conditions, with a greater chance of wetter weather anticipated.
There’s a considerable likelihood of increased precipitation, which could bode well for the ski season, historically enriched in La Niña winters. Last winter, the ski season kicked off early, providing hopeful signs for winter sport enthusiasts. Moreover, while the forecast indicates a chance for at least one significant snow or ice event that could disrupt normal city activities, the optimism remains for a shorter-lived occurrence, reminiscent of last February’s snow.
The winter also poses potential risks, such as increased chances for flooding; however, major flood events in the area have not occurred in 30 years, suggesting that while the risk is present, it may not manifest immediately. The Pacific Northwest remains overdue for a substantial windstorm, with the last major event recorded three decades ago, reinforcing the unpredictable nature of winter weather.
Portland has recently enjoyed consistent snowfall over the years, breaking historical patterns where winters often passed without snow at lower elevations. The last eight winters have seen measurable snowfall, and the trend suggests that this winter may continue to deliver some wintry weather events.
As conditions develop, forecasters will maintain close attention to the effects of the northern Pacific jet stream, which typically influences precipitation patterns in the winter months. It’s worth noting that while La Niña winters can be expected to follow specific patterns, variability exists, maintaining an air of unpredictability in winter weather.
In conclusion, while uncertainties persist about the specifics of winter weather in the Pacific Northwest, there’s cautious optimism for a season filled with favorable skiing conditions and limited severe weather disruptions. The community can look forward to another winter filled with unique weather experiences.