La Niña conditions are forecasted to emerge over the next three months in the Pacific, according to an announcement made at the 17th session of the Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF-17) in Port Vila, Vanuatu. This information, released by the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Association V (WMO RA V) Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network, provides essential guidance for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of 15 Pacific nations as they prepare for the Tropical Cyclone Season, which spans from November to April.
The WMO has indicated that a weak La Niña event is anticipated to develop between November 2025 and January 2026. While La Niña conditions are expected, the phenomenon is not predicted to exhibit the strength and longevity typically associated with significant La Niña events. By the first quarter of 2026, conditions are expected to transition to a neutral state.
La Niña is known for increasing trade winds that drive warmer surface waters towards the western Pacific, leading to elevated sea surface temperatures in regions such as Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. In contrast, Central and Eastern Pacific nations, including Nauru, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Cook Islands, will likely experience cooler sea temperatures.
During the PICOF-17 meeting, experts agreed that a weak La Niña is indeed likely. This climatic event typically has profound impacts on weather patterns, often resulting in heavy rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding in Western Pacific countries, while Central and Eastern regions may face reduced rainfall and drought conditions. As warmer ocean waters in the Western Pacific might contribute to an uptick in cyclone activity, Eastern Pacific nations are generally expected to encounter fewer tropical cyclones due to drier conditions.
As the tropical cyclone season nears, communities throughout the Pacific are advised to remain vigilant and informed through their National Meteorological Services and organizations such as the Pacific Community (SPC) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Preparedness will be vital, as these evolving weather patterns present both challenges and opportunities for enhancing resilience in agricultural and water management systems.
The ongoing interaction between natural climatic events and climate change is a critical aspect of discussions as regions strive to adapt and prepare for the potential benefits and challenges these weather phenomena may bring. Through proactive measures and a commitment to resilience, there is a hopeful outlook for mitigating negative impacts while strengthening the ability of communities across the Pacific to handle shifting climatic circumstances.