Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes are set to face off on Saturday in the main card of UFC 306 at Sphere in Las Vegas. Here’s a quick analysis of the matchup provided by MMA expert Dan Tom.
Brian Ortega (16-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) has encountered challenges in maintaining activity after his title shot in the featherweight division, boasting a record of 2-3 over the last six years. However, he is coming off a Performance of the Night submission victory against Yair Rodriguez in February. Ortega was originally scheduled to fight Lopes in June at UFC 303 but had to withdraw due to a difficult weight cut.
Diego Lopes (25-6 MMA, 4-1 UFC), on the other hand, has made a significant impact since entering the UFC last year, earning the title of MMA Junkie’s Newcomer of the Year for 2023. Lopes is currently on a four-fight winning streak, which includes a last-minute decision victory over Dan Ige after Ortega’s withdrawal from UFC 303.
In terms of their initial booking for UFC 303, Ortega’s health issues from the weight cut led to Lopes stepping in against Ige. Now that both fighters have had the opportunity for a full training camp, there remains a question about their health given the quick turnaround for this significant event.
While Ortega has the advantage of experience and skill on paper, Lopes brings unique stylistic attributes that could play a crucial role in the fight. Lopes’ ability to counter Ortega’s strikes and apply pressure may lead to an accumulation of damage on Ortega.
Tom predicts that Lopes will secure a stoppage victory through strikes in the second round of the fight.
The betting odds favor Lopes as the younger competitor, with Lopes listed at (-188) and Ortega at (+146) on FanDuel.
Ortega and Lopes are expected to enter the octagon around 11:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. local time in Las Vegas). Fans can watch the fight on ESPN+ pay-per-view. For more information on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s dedicated event hub for UFC 306.