No. 9 Ole Miss football appeared confident in its quest for a College Football Playoff (CFP) berth following a significant upset victory against then-No. 2 Georgia two weeks ago. The Rebels seemed to just need to secure victories in their upcoming games to solidify their position.
However, after a disappointing 24-17 loss to unranked Florida on Saturday, the team may find itself in a familiar situation, potentially missing out on the CFP for the fifth consecutive season under head coach Lane Kiffin.
Entering the match with a No. 9 ranking in the latest CFP top 25 and a 65.9% probability of making the playoffs—as reported by ESPN’s College Football Power Index—the Rebels needed to defeat Florida and Mississippi State to have a favorable shot at one of the coveted playoff spots, regardless of their standing in the SEC championship.
The outcome against Florida has drastically diminished Ole Miss’ playoff ambitions. According to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor, the Rebels’ chances of being featured in the final 12-team CFP bracket, set to be announced on December 8, have plummeted to just 4%. Had they won against Florida, this percentage would have surged to a promising 84%.
Currently, projections indicate that Ole Miss could drop to the No. 10 seed in the upcoming CFP rankings, meaning they are at risk of being on the outside looking in for the playoff spots.
With all three of Ole Miss’s losses thus far being against conference opponents, their chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game are bleak. A two-loss scenario that would allow them entry would require several favorable outcomes, including victories over Florida and Mississippi State, alongside losses from key SEC rivals like Texas A&M and Alabama.
The Rebels can still compete in their final conference matchup against Mississippi State in the annual Egg Bowl next Friday. However, even with a win and some luck, their 4-3 conference record may not be sufficient to propel them to Atlanta for the championship game.
Despite the setback, Ole Miss has exhibited resilience throughout the season, winning key games and showcasing the potential to rebound in the future. As the Rebels look toward the Egg Bowl, there is still hope that they can finish the season strong and build on their successes for next year.
In summary, while the loss to Florida has greatly impacted Ole Miss’ CFP hopes, the team still has an opportunity to end the season positively by focusing on their upcoming game against Mississippi State. This could lay the groundwork for a renewed push in the next season.