The Old Dominion Monarchs are set to face off against the James Madison Dukes this Saturday, October 18, in Harrisonburg, Virginia, with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU. The Dukes enter the game as 1.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -120, while the total for the matchup is set at 47.5 points.
In the lead-up to this contest, predictions favor Old Dominion to cover the spread. Despite last week’s upset loss to Marshall, many remain optimistic about the Monarchs’ prospects against James Madison. Old Dominion’s defeat was exacerbated by a significant turnover disparity, with a minus-five turnover margin that is usually hard to overcome, particularly in away games.
Analyzing their performance metrics, Old Dominion demonstrates superior efficiency in expected points added (EPA) and yards per play compared to their competition, even with a more challenging schedule. On the other hand, the Dukes have benefited from a comparatively easier slate, with unimpressive offensive output against weaker defenses. Notable games include a narrow win over Liberty, despite facing a backup quarterback, and a mere 14-7 victory against Georgia State.
The Dukes have also struggled with penalties, ranking second in the nation for penalty yards, which could impact their gameplay against a more disciplined Old Dominion team. While the James Madison defense has shown strength, concerns arise regarding their quarterback Alonza Barnett, who hasn’t been firing on all cylinders of late.
In contrast, Old Dominion quarterback Colton Joseph has been performing well, boasting a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio and significantly higher average yards per attempt compared to Barnett. Joseph also showcases better mobility, contributing with substantial rushing yards throughout the season.
With these factors in mind, analysts believe that Old Dominion may actually be the stronger team, maintaining a power rating suggesting they would perform better by a field goal on neutral territory. As the Monarchs aim to rebound from their recent loss, there is a palpable sense of hope for those backing them, emphasizing an opportunity for a strategic upset in what promises to be an exciting Sun Belt showdown.
Betting trends favor Old Dominion covering the spread and possibly surprising many with their performance against the Dukes.