Nvidia’s Race to Adapt: What Lies Ahead for AI Chips in China?

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As the United States considers implementing stricter trade restrictions to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturer, is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to meet these regulations.

Sources indicate that Nvidia is collaborating with a local distributor, Inspur, to introduce and market a chip provisionally named the “B20” within China. The B20 is expected to begin shipping by the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has already introduced three chips specifically engineered to comply with U.S. export regulations, including the H20, for which it recently lowered prices to boost sales against competitors like Huawei. Reports suggest that sales of the H20 are now increasing, with projections estimating over one million units sold in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite ongoing trade restrictions.

However, analysts from Jefferies caution that the H20 chips may face challenges under impending U.S. trade regulations. The annual review of semiconductor export controls scheduled for October could lead to a ban on H20 sales to China, with potential restrictions possibly arising from a product-specific ban, a reduction in computing power limits, or memory capacity caps.

Furthermore, the U.S. might expand export controls to include chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or broaden these controls to affect overseas Chinese firms, though such measures would be more complex to execute.

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