Nvidia’s Race Against Time: Can AI Chips Survive New Trade Restrictions?

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As the United States ponders stricter trade restrictions to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a prominent U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to align with these regulations.

According to Reuters, Nvidia is collaborating with a local partner, Inspur, to introduce and market a new chip, tentatively named the “B20,” specifically for the Chinese market. The B20 is anticipated to commence shipments in the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has already created three chips that adhere to U.S. export controls, including the H20 model, which the company has reduced in price due to sluggish sales in order to better compete with chips from domestic rival Huawei. However, reports indicate that sales of the H20 are now on the rise, with Nvidia expected to sell over one million units in China this year, valued at approximately $12 billion, despite the ongoing trade restrictions. This forecast is nearly double that of Huawei’s projected sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

Jefferies analysts have warned that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face potential risks under forthcoming U.S. trade regulations. In light of the U.S.’s annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, the analysts expressed a strong likelihood that the H20 could be prohibited from sale to China. This potential ban could manifest in several ways, including a product-specific ban, a reduction in the computing power cap, or limitations on memory capacity.

Additionally, it is possible that export controls on chips could extend to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or be expanded to include overseas Chinese firms, although analysts suggest that implementing such measures may prove to be more complex.

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