Nvidia’s Quest: Can They Navigate U.S. Trade Hurdles to China?

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As the United States weighs tougher trade measures to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a leading chipmaker based in the U.S., is reportedly developing a modified version of its new artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these restrictions.

Nvidia is said to be creating a variant of its Blackwell AI chips specifically for the Chinese market, as reported by Reuters, citing confidential sources. The company plans to partner with a local distributor, Inspur, to introduce and market the chip, provisionally named the “B20,” in China.

The B20 chips are anticipated to commence shipments in the second quarter of 2025, according to sources. Nvidia has refrained from making any official comments on the matter.

Currently, Nvidia has three chip models intended to meet U.S. export regulations, including the H20, which it has recently reduced prices on due to sluggish sales, aiming to compete with homegrown rival Huawei. However, sales of the H20 chip are reportedly on the rise. Nvidia is projected to sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, estimated to generate approximately $12 billion, in spite of existing U.S. trade restrictions, as per data from SemiAnalysis referenced by the Financial Times. This anticipated sales figure is nearly double Huawei’s expectations for its Ascend 910B chip, according to the same data.

In another development, analysts from Jefferies have indicated that Nvidia’s H20 chips might face increased risks under potential new U.S. trade regulations. As the U.S. prepares for its annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, Jefferies analysts noted that there is a high probability the H20 will be prohibited for sale in China. The restrictions could manifest through a specific ban on the product, a reduction of the computing power cap, or limitations on memory capacity.

Additionally, the U.S. might expand export controls to chips sold to other countries in the region, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or extend these regulations to overseas Chinese firms, though this would be more challenging to enforce, according to analysts.

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