Nvidia’s Next Move: Will New AI Chips Survive U.S. Trade Scrutiny?

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As the United States evaluates stricter trade regulations to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, the American semiconductor company Nvidia is reportedly developing a version of its new artificial intelligence chips to meet these requirements.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is working on its Blackwell AI chips, specifically a model tentatively named the “B20,” which will be launched in partnership with local distributor Inspur in China. The B20 is projected to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025, although Nvidia has not commented on these plans.

Nvidia currently has three chip models tailored to comply with U.S. export restrictions, including the H20, which saw price reductions due to declining sales as it faced competition from domestic rival Huawei. Nevertheless, sales of the H20 have improved, with reports suggesting that Nvidia expects to sell over one million units of this chip in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite existing trade limitations. This estimated sales figure is nearly double Huawei’s anticipated sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, the future of Nvidia’s H20 chips may be jeopardized by potential upcoming U.S. trade measures. Analysts from Jeffries noted that when the U.S. conducts its annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, a ban on the H20 for the Chinese market appears highly probable. Analysts suggested that such a ban could occur through various methods, including a product-specific ban, reducing the computing power threshold, or limiting memory capacity.

Furthermore, there is speculation that the U.S. may expand its export restrictions on chips to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or possibly extend these controls to Chinese companies operating abroad, although implementing such measures could be more complex.

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