Nvidia’s Next Move: Will AI Chips Survive U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade regulations to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a new version of its artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these new rules.

According to reports, Nvidia is collaborating with a local distribution partner, Inspur, to introduce and market the new chip, tentatively named the “B20,” specifically for the Chinese market. The anticipated launch date for shipping the B20 is the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has already designed three chips that comply with U.S. export controls, one of which is the H20. This chip saw a reduction in prices amidst declining sales in an effort to stay competitive against Huawei’s domestic products. However, recent reports indicate that sales for the H20 are on the rise. It is expected that Nvidia will sell over a million of its H20 chips in China this year, valued at approximately $12 billion, despite existing trade restrictions.

Nevertheless, Jefferies analysts have warned that the H20 chips could face further risks under impending U.S. trade regulations. With the U.S. set to review semiconductor export controls this October, there is a strong likelihood that the H20 may be prohibited from being sold to China. Such a ban could take various forms, including product-specific prohibitions, a reduction in computing power limits, or limitations on memory capacity.

Additionally, the U.S. may consider extending these export controls to other countries in the region, like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or even to overseas Chinese companies, though this would present more implementation challenges.

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