Nvidia’s Next Move: Navigating Trade Tensions with a New AI Chip for China

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As the United States contemplates implementing more stringent trade restrictions to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a major U.S. chipmaker, is reportedly developing a new version of its artificial intelligence chips designed to adhere to these regulations.

According to reports, Nvidia is creating a variant of its Blackwell AI chips specifically for the Chinese market. The new chip, referred to as the “B20,” is expected to be launched in collaboration with a local distribution partner, Inspur, with shipping anticipated to begin in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has not yet commented on these developments.

The company has already produced three chips that comply with U.S. export controls, including the H20, which Nvidia reduced in price due to weak sales, particularly to compete with domestic rival Huawei. Despite initial challenges, H20 sales have reportedly begun to rise, with expectations that Nvidia will sell over one million units in China this year, valued at approximately $12 billion, despite ongoing trade limitations. This projected number significantly surpasses Huawei’s anticipated sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, analysts from Jeffries have warned that Nvidia’s H20 chips could face risks under additional U.S. trade regulations. They noted that during the upcoming annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, there is a strong likelihood that the H20 will be banned for sale to China. Possible restrictions could come through a specific product ban, adjustments to computing power limits, or modifications to memory capacity restrictions.

Furthermore, U.S. authorities might consider extending these export controls to chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or expanding the restrictions to overseas Chinese companies, although the latter would be more challenging to enforce, analysts suggest.

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