Nvidia’s Next Move: Can They Navigate Stricter US Trade Rules?

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As the U.S. contemplates stricter trade restrictions aimed at preventing advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, an American chipmaker, is reportedly developing a modified version of its new artificial intelligence chips to comply with these regulations.

According to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, Nvidia is collaborating with a local distributor, Inspur, to introduce a chip in China, tentatively named the “B20.” The B20 is projected to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has already designed three chips to adhere to U.S. export controls, including the H20, which it has recently lowered prices on due to sluggish sales. This move was made in response to competition from domestically produced chips by Huawei. Reports indicate that sales of the H20 are beginning to increase, with expectations of over one million units sold in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite ongoing U.S. trade restrictions. This figure is nearly twice as high as Huawei’s anticipated sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, there are concerns regarding potential risks to Nvidia’s H20 chips under future U.S. trade regulations. Analysts from Jefferies noted that during the upcoming annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, it is “highly likely” that the H20 will be banned for sale in China. Possible avenues for the ban could include a product-specific prohibition, lowering the computing power limit, or imposing restrictions on memory capacity.

Furthermore, the U.S. may broaden export controls to include chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or extend these controls to overseas Chinese firms, though implementing such measures could be more complex.

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