NVIDIA’s Next Move: Can a New Chip Outsmart U.S. Trade Rules?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade measures to restrict advanced chip equipment from reaching China, NVIDIA, an American semiconductor manufacturer, is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips that aligns with these regulations.

NVIDIA is said to be collaborating with a local distributor, Inspur, to introduce and sell a chip provisionally named “B20” in China, according to unnamed sources cited by Reuters. This new chip is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

The company has already designed several chips, including the H20, specifically to meet U.S. export control standards. NVIDIA has recently reduced prices for the H20 in response to slow sales in order to compete with local rival Huawei. Despite initial challenges, H20 sales have reportedly started to rise, with projections indicating that NVIDIA could sell over one million units of the H20 chip in China this year, worth approximately $12 billion, according to data from SemiAnalysis noted by the Financial Times. This figure significantly exceeds Huawei’s predictions for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, industry analysts from Jefferies have expressed concerns that the H20 may face potential restrictions under forthcoming U.S. trade regulations. In their upcoming annual review of semiconductor export controls, scheduled for October, there is a strong possibility that the H20 could be prohibited from being sold to China. Analysts warn that such a ban could manifest in various forms, including specific product bans, reductions in computing power limits, or restricted memory capacity.

Moreover, the U.S. may also consider extending export controls on semiconductor sales to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or even broaden these restrictions to include companies based overseas in China, although implementing such measures could be more complex.

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