Nvidia’s New Chips: A Delicate Dance with U.S.-China Trade Rules

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As the U.S. contemplates stricter trade measures to restrict advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a leading chip manufacturer based in the United States, is reportedly developing a version of its new artificial intelligence chips that aligns with these regulations.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is collaborating with a local partner, Inspur, to introduce and market a chip in China, provisionally named the “B20.” The launch is anticipated for the second quarter of 2025, though Nvidia has not commented on this development.

Nvidia has already designed three chips to comply with U.S. export regulations, including the H20, which the company had to reduce prices for in response to low sales due to competition from Huawei. Recent reports indicate that H20 sales are now on the rise, with projections suggesting Nvidia will sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, potentially generating around $12 billion in revenue despite existing trade limitations. This figure nearly doubles Huawei’s expected sales for its Ascend 910B chip, according to data from SemiAnalysis.

However, Jefferies analysts have raised concerns about the future of Nvidia’s H20 chips under potential further U.S. trade restrictions. The annual review of semiconductor export controls is set to take place in October, and analysts believe it is likely that the H20 may be prohibited for sale to China. Such a ban could come through various means, including a specific product ban, a reduction in the computing power limit, or restrictions on memory capacity.

Furthermore, there is a possibility that the U.S. may broaden export controls to include chips sold to other regional countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or extend these measures to overseas Chinese companies, although the latter could prove more difficult to enforce, according to analysts.

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