Nvidia’s New Chip Strategy: Can It Survive U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

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As the United States evaluates stricter trade measures to prevent advanced chip technology from being supplied to China, Nvidia, a leading chipmaker based in the U.S., is reportedly developing a version of its new artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these impending regulations.

Sources indicate that Nvidia is collaborating with a local distributor, Inspur, to introduce and market a chip tentatively named the “B20” in China. This new product is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

Although Nvidia has adjusted the prices of its H20 chips—designed to meet U.S. export controls—due to sluggish sales and competition from domestic rival Huawei, reports suggest that sales of the H20 are now on the rise. Nvidia is projected to sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, generating approximately $12 billion in revenue, despite the limitations imposed by U.S. trade regulations. This expected figure nearly doubles Huawei’s anticipated sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, the H20 chips may face challenges if further U.S. trade restrictions are enacted. Analysts from Jeffries have noted that during the U.S. annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, it is likely that the H20 could be prohibited from being sold to China. Such a ban could come in several forms, including specific product bans, reductions in computing power caps, or limits on memory capacity.

Additionally, the U.S. might broaden its export restrictions to include chips destined for other regional countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or to overseas Chinese firms, although the latter would be more complex to execute, according to analysts.

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