Nvidia’s New Chip: Navigating the China Trade Tightrope

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade measures to stop advanced chip technology from being exported to China, Nvidia, a prominent American chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips that aligns with these potential regulations.

According to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, Nvidia is working on a new product called the “B20” specifically aimed at the Chinese market. The company plans to collaborate with local distributor Inspur to introduce and market this chip.

Initial shipments of the B20 are anticipated to begin in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has not publicly commented on this development.

Nvidia currently offers three chip models that adhere to U.S. export restrictions, including the H20. The company recently lowered prices for the H20 due to sluggish sales, aiming to better compete with Chinese rival Huawei. Reports indicate that sales for the H20 have begun to improve, with Nvidia projected to sell over one million units in China this year, valuing around $12 billion, despite ongoing trade constraints. This sales forecast is nearly twice that of Huawei’s anticipated sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, analysts from Jefferies have noted that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face additional risks under new U.S. trade regulations. As the U.S. government prepares for its annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, it is deemed “highly likely” that the H20 could be prohibited for sale to China. Potential avenues for this ban could include a product-specific restriction, stricter limits on computing power, or caps on memory capacity.

Furthermore, there is a possibility that export controls could be expanded to include chip sales to other Southeast Asian countries, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or even to overseas Chinese firms. However, analysts suggest that enforcing such extensions would be considerably more challenging.

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