Nvidia’s New Chip Gamble: Will It Pass U.S. Trade Scrutiny?

As the United States evaluates stricter trade measures to stop advanced chip technology from reaching China, the American semiconductor manufacturer Nvidia is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these regulations.

According to reports from unnamed sources, Nvidia is creating a variant of its new Blackwell AI chips specifically for the Chinese market. The company is set to collaborate with local distribution partner Inspur for the launch and sale of the chip, which is provisionally named the “B20,” in China.

The B20 is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has not provided any comments regarding this development.

Nvidia has already introduced three chips tailored to meet U.S. export controls, including the H20, which saw a price reduction due to declining sales as it competes against similar offerings from Huawei. However, sources indicate that sales of the H20 are now on the rise, with Nvidia projected to sell over one million units in China this year, generating approximately $12 billion in revenue despite existing U.S. trade restrictions. These sales expectations are nearly double that of Huawei’s Ascend 910B chip projections, based on data from SemiAnalysis.

In contrast, Nvidia’s H20 chips may face challenges under forthcoming U.S. trade regulations, according to analysts from Jeffries. The annual U.S. review of semiconductor export controls is set for October, and analysts believe it is quite possible that the H20 could be prohibited from sale to China. Potential avenues for a ban include implementing a product-specific restriction, reducing the computing power threshold, or capping memory capacity.

Additionally, the U.S. may consider extending export restrictions on chips supplied to other countries within the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or to overseas Chinese firms, although analysts note that the latter would be more complex to enforce.

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