Nvidia’s New Chip Gamble: Can It Navigate U.S. Trade Restrictions?

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As the United States explores stricter trade regulations to restrict advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a prominent U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a version of its new artificial intelligence chips that adheres to these potential rules.

According to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, Nvidia is collaborating with a local distributor in China, Inspur, to introduce a chip tentatively named the “B20” in the Chinese market. The B20 is projected to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has already designed three chips that align with U.S. export controls, including the H20, which the company has reduced in price to remain competitive against domestic rival Huawei amid soft sales. Recent reports indicate that sales of the H20 have started to pick up, with expectations to exceed one million units sold in China this year, translating to approximately $12 billion in revenue, as per SemiAnalysis data. These projected sales nearly double Huawei’s anticipated figures for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, Jefferies analysts have raised concerns that Nvidia’s H20 chips could face new restrictions under impending U.S. trade regulations. They noted that during the upcoming annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, it is likely that the H20 could be banned from sale to China. Such a ban could manifest in several forms, including a specific ban on the product, a reduction in the allowed computing power, or limits on memory capacity.

Additionally, analysts have indicated that the U.S. may broaden export controls to include chips sold to neighboring countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or potentially extend restrictions to overseas Chinese companies, though the latter would present greater challenges in implementation.

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