Nvidia’s New Chip for China: A Game Changer or a Risky Gamble?

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As the United States evaluates stricter trade measures to restrict advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a leading U.S. chipmaker, is reportedly developing a compliant version of its latest artificial intelligence chips. According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is collaborating with a local partner, Inspur, to introduce the chip, provisionally named the “B20,” specifically for the Chinese market.

The B20 is anticipated to begin shipments in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has not commented on this development.

The company currently has three chips designed to adhere to U.S. export regulations, including the H20, which Nvidia has reduced prices on in response to weak sales against domestic competitor Huawei. However, reports indicate that sales of the H20 have started to rise, with Nvidia projected to sell over one million units of the H20 chip in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite ongoing trade restrictions. This anticipated sales figure significantly surpasses Huawei’s expectations for its Ascend 910B chip.

Conversely, Nvidia’s H20 chips might face challenges if new U.S. trade regulations are implemented. Analysts from Jefferies noted in a recent report that during the U.S. annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, it is “highly likely” that the H20 will be prohibited from being sold to China. The potential ban could be enacted in multiple ways, such as a specific product ban, adjusting the permissible computing power, or limiting memory capacities.

Additionally, the U.S. could widen its export controls to encompass chips destined for other nations in the region, like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or potentially target overseas Chinese firms, although analysts suggest this latter option may prove more challenging to enforce.

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