Nvidia’s New AI Chip Faces U.S. Trade Dilemma: What’s Next?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade limitations to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a major American chipmaker, is reportedly developing a new version of its artificial intelligence chips to align with these regulations.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is customizing its Blackwell AI chips for the Chinese market and plans to collaborate with local distributor Inspur to introduce the chip, which is tentatively named the “B20,” in China.

The B20 is anticipated to begin shipments in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has chosen not to comment on the matter.

The company currently offers three chips specifically designed to adhere to U.S. export controls, including the H20 model, which has seen price reductions amid sluggish sales as it competes with offerings from Huawei. However, reports indicate that the H20 is now experiencing an increase in sales. Forecasts suggest that Nvidia could sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, generating approximately $12 billion in revenue, even in the face of U.S. trade restrictions. This sales figure nearly doubles the projected sales of Huawei’s Ascend 910B chip.

Despite the positive sales outlook, analysts from Jefferies have warned that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face further risks under impending U.S. trade regulations. In light of the upcoming annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, they noted that it is highly probable the H20 may be prohibited for sale to China. Potential avenues for such a ban include implementing a product-specific restriction, decreasing the computing power threshold, or imposing limits on memory capacity.

Moreover, analysts suggest that the U.S. might also consider expanding export controls on chips sold to additional countries in the region, like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or even extending these measures to overseas Chinese firms, though the latter may prove more challenging to execute.

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