Nvidia’s New AI Chip: A Gambit in the U.S.-China Tech Tug-of-War?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade regulations to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a new version of its artificial intelligence chips to comply with these guidelines.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is working on a version of its Blackwell AI chips specifically for the Chinese market, intent on launching and distributing the chip, tentatively named the “B20,” through a local distribution partner, Inspur. The B20 is projected to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025, although Nvidia has not commented on the report.

Nvidia has introduced three chips designed to meet U.S. export control requirements, including the H20 chip, which saw price reductions due to sluggish sales as it competed against domestic rival Huawei. However, sales of the H20 chip are reportedly on the rise, with expectations of over one million units sold in China this year, valued at approximately $12 billion, despite the ongoing U.S. trade restrictions. This sales forecast is almost double that of Huawei’s expected performance with its Ascend 910B chip.

In light of potential further U.S. trade regulations, analysts from Jeffries express concerns that Nvidia’s H20 chips could face restrictions. As the U.S. prepares for its annual review of semiconductor export controls this October, the analysts believe there is a significant possibility that the H20 could be prohibited from sales to China. They noted that such a ban could potentially occur through several means: a specific product ban, lowering the computing power thresholds, or imposing limitations on memory capacity.

Additionally, U.S. export control measures might expand to include chips sold to other regional countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or could even extend to overseas Chinese companies, though this latter option may be more challenging to enforce, according to the analysts.

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