Nvidia’s Game Plan: Navigating New Trade Rules for China

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As the United States contemplates stronger trade restrictions to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a prominent U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these regulations.

Nvidia is said to be collaborating with a local distribution partner, Inspur, to introduce and market a chip, tentatively named the “B20,” specifically for the Chinese market. The launch is expected to occur in the second quarter of 2025, according to sources familiar with the situation.

The company has already produced three chips intended to align with U.S. export controls, including the H20 model, which Nvidia has reduced in price due to sluggish sales, competing with local rival Huawei. Reports suggest that H20 sales are on the rise, with projections indicating that Nvidia might sell over one million of these chips in China within the current year, generating approximately $12 billion in revenue, despite existing U.S. trade limitations. This figure is nearly double Huawei’s anticipated sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, analysts from Jefferies have noted that Nvidia’s H20 chips could be at risk from potential new U.S. trade regulations. In light of the upcoming annual review of U.S. semiconductor export controls scheduled for October, the analysts indicated that it is “highly likely” that the H20 could be prohibited from being sold to China. Such a ban could be implemented through various means, including a specific product ban, reductions in computing power limits, or constraints on memory capacity.

Furthermore, U.S. authorities may consider broadening export restrictions on chips destined for other countries in the region, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or could take steps to impose controls on overseas Chinese companies, though this latter approach might be more challenging to enforce, according to analysts.

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