Nvidia’s Gamble: New Chips to Navigate U.S.-China Trade Tensions

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As the United States considers implementing stricter trade measures to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a U.S.-based chipmaker, is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to meet these regulations.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is collaborating with local distributor Inspur to introduce the “B20,” a variant of its Blackwell AI chips aimed at the Chinese market. Reports indicate that the B20 is set to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has chosen not to comment on this matter.

In addition to the B20, Nvidia has three chips specifically designed to comply with U.S. export controls, one of which is the H20. To boost sales amid stiff competition from the domestic Chinese company Huawei, Nvidia lowered the prices of the H20. Despite these challenges, H20 sales have reportedly gained traction, with expectations of selling over a million units in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, according to data from SemiAnalysis. This forecast nearly doubles Huawei’s expectations for its Ascend 910B chip sales.

Analysts from Jefferies have noted that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face risks under potential new U.S. trade regulations. With the upcoming annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, analysts suggest that it is quite likely the H20 will be banned for sale to China. Such a ban could be enacted in several ways, including a specific product ban, a reduction in the computing power cap, or limitations on memory capacity.

Furthermore, there are indications that the U.S. may broaden export control measures to include chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or expand these controls to overseas Chinese firms, although this would present more implementation challenges, according to analysts.

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