Nvidia’s Gamble: Adapting AI Chips for China Amidst Trade Turmoil

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As the United States explores more stringent trade restrictions to limit the flow of advanced chip technology to China, Nvidia, a leading American chipmaker, is reportedly developing a specialized version of its new artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these regulations.

According to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, Nvidia is collaborating with local distributor Inspur to introduce this newly adapted chip, tentatively named the “B20,” in the Chinese market, with plans for shipping set to begin in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has not provided any comment regarding this report.

The company has already designed three chips aligned with existing U.S. export controls, including the H20 model, for which Nvidia has reduced prices due to sluggish sales, as it seeks to compete with products from domestic rival Huawei. However, recent reports indicate that sales of the H20 are on the rise, with projections suggesting Nvidia could sell over one million units in China this year, generating approximately $12 billion, despite the overarching trade restrictions. This anticipated sales figure nearly doubles Huawei’s sales forecast for its Ascend 910B chip.

Analysts at Jefferies have warned that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face further risk under upcoming U.S. trade regulations. They anticipate that during the next annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, it is quite possible that a ban on the H20 chip for sale to China may be implemented. This ban could manifest in several ways, including a product-specific ban, adjustments to computing power thresholds, or restrictions on memory capacity.

Furthermore, there is speculation that the U.S. might broaden its export control measures to encompass chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or even extend such controls to overseas Chinese enterprises, although the latter would present more significant challenges in terms of enforcement, according to industry analysts.

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