Nvidia’s Chips Caught in Trade Tensions: What’s Next?

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As the United States contemplates imposing stricter trade measures aimed at preventing advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a leading American chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a modified version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to ensure compliance with these regulations.

According to reports from unnamed sources, Nvidia is collaborating with a local distribution partner, Inspur, to introduce and sell a chip named the “B20” in China. This new chip is expected to begin shipping by the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has not publicly commented on these developments.

The company has also designed several chips that adhere to U.S. export controls, including the H20, for which Nvidia recently reduced prices in response to weak sales and increased competition from Chinese rival Huawei. Despite these challenges, sources indicate that H20 sales are recovering, with Nvidia projected to sell over one million units in China this year, generating approximately $12 billion in revenue, as reported by the Financial Times referencing SemiAnalysis data. This anticipated sales figure is nearly double Huawei’s expected sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, Nvidia’s H20 chips may face threats under potential new U.S. trade regulations. Analysts from Jefferies have suggested that during the annual review of U.S. semiconductor export controls in October, it is likely that sales of the H20 to China will be restricted. Possible restrictions could include a specific ban on the product, adjustments to the maximum computing power limits, or capping memory capacity.

There are also considerations that the U.S. might broaden its export restrictions to chips sold to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or impose similar rules on foreign companies linked to China, although the latter could prove more complex to enforce.

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