Nvidia’s China Chip Play: Can They Navigate U.S. Trade Restrictions?

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As the United States considers implementing stricter trade restrictions to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a prominent American chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a variant of its latest artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these regulations.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is creating a version of its Blackwell AI chips specifically for the Chinese market. The company is expected to collaborate with a local distribution partner, Inspur, to introduce and sell this chip, tentatively named the “B20,” in China.

The B20 is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has refrained from commenting on the report.

Additionally, Nvidia has designed three chips specifically to comply with U.S. export controls, one of which is the H20. The company has lowered prices for the H20 due to sluggish sales and competition from domestic rival Huawei. However, recent reports indicate that sales of the H20 are on the rise. Nvidia is projected to sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite existing trade restrictions. This figure is nearly double Huawei’s expected sales for its Ascend 910B chip, according to SemiAnalysis data.

However, analysts from Jefferies have raised concerns that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face risks under potential future U.S. trade regulations. They noted that when the U.S. conducts its annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, there is a significant possibility that the H20 will be prohibited from being sold to China. Such a ban could occur through various means, including a product-specific prohibition, a reduction of the computing power cap, or limitations on memory capacity.

Furthermore, analysts suggested that the U.S. may also consider extending export controls on chips sold to other countries in the region such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or even to overseas Chinese companies, although the latter would pose implementation challenges.

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