Nvidia’s Bold Move: Will New Chips Survive U.S.-China Trade Tensions?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade regulations to inhibit advanced chip technology from being sent to China, Nvidia, a U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a modified version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to align with these new rules.

According to reports, Nvidia is focusing on a specific variant of its Blackwell AI chips for the Chinese market and plans to collaborate with a local distributor, Inspur, to introduce and sell the chip, provisionally named the “B20.” Sources indicate that this chip could start shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has already designed three chips to meet U.S. export restrictions, including the H20, for which the company has reduced prices in light of sluggish sales to counteract competition from domestic rival Huawei. Recent data suggests that H20 sales are on the rise, with Nvidia reportedly poised to sell over one million of these chips in China this year, valued at around $12 billion, despite the existing trade limitations.

However, analysts from Jefferies warn that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face risks under potential new U.S. trade regulations. They anticipate that during the upcoming annual assessment of U.S. semiconductor export controls in October, it is “highly likely” that the H20 will be prohibited from sale to China. This ban could manifest through various measures, including a specific product ban, a reduction in the computing power cap, or limitations on memory capacity.

Additionally, there are possibilities that the U.S. may extend these export controls to chips sold in nearby countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or expand the restrictions to Chinese companies operating overseas, though such actions would be more complex to implement, according to analysts.

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