Nvidia’s Bid to Navigate U.S.-China Chip Tensions: What’s Next?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade measures to prevent advanced semiconductor technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a prominent American chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a modified version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these regulations.

According to reports, Nvidia is collaborating with a local partner, Inspur, to introduce a chip known as the “B20” to the Chinese market. The B20 is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has not provided any comments regarding this development.

The company currently offers three semiconductor models that are tailored to meet U.S. export regulations, including the H20 model. To boost its appeal in light of sluggish sales and competition from Chinese firm Huawei, Nvidia has lowered the prices of the H20. Recent sources indicate that sales of the H20 chips are beginning to improve, with projections suggesting that Nvidia could sell over a million units in China this year, potentially generating around $12 billion in revenue despite the existing trade restrictions. This anticipated figure is nearly double that of Huawei’s expected sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

On the other hand, analysts from Jefferies caution that Nvidia’s H20 chips may soon face additional risks due to impending U.S. trade regulations. During the annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, there is a significant likelihood that the H20 could be banned from being sold to China, they stated. Such a ban could be enacted in several ways, including establishing a ban specific to the product, reducing the limit on computing power, or capping memory capacity.

Additionally, the U.S. is considering extending export controls on chips sold to other countries in the region such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, as well as potentially extending these controls to companies operated by overseas Chinese, although the latter would be more challenging to enforce, according to analysts.

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