Nvidia’s AI Chips: Will New Trade Rules Change the Game?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade restrictions to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a leading chipmaker based in the U.S., is reportedly developing a modified version of its new artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these regulations.

According to unnamed sources, Nvidia is preparing a version of its Blackwell AI chips for the Chinese market, collaborating with local distribution partner Inspur to introduce and sell the chip, provisionally named the “B20,” in China.

The B20 is projected to commence shipping in the second quarter of 2025. Nvidia has opted not to comment on these developments.

Additionally, the company has created three chips specifically designed to comply with U.S. export controls, including the H20, which underwent price reductions due to sluggish sales aimed at competing against domestic rival Huawei. However, sales of the H20 have reportedly started to pick up, with projections indicating Nvidia may sell over one million of these chips in China this year, valued at approximately $12 billion, despite ongoing U.S. trade restrictions. This forecast nearly doubles Huawei’s anticipated sales for its Ascend 910B chip, as per analytics data.

Nevertheless, the H20 chips may face challenges under potential new U.S. trade regulations. Analysts at Jefferies have noted that during the upcoming yearly review of U.S. semiconductor export controls in October, there is a significant likelihood that sales of the H20 to China may be prohibited. Such a ban could manifest in various forms, including a specific product ban, a reduction in the computing power cap, or limitations on memory capacity.

Furthermore, there is a possibility that the U.S. could broaden its export controls to encompass chips shipped to other countries within the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or even extend restrictions to overseas Chinese companies, though this would be more complex to enforce, according to industry analysts.

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