As the United States deliberates over stricter trade restrictions aimed at preventing advanced chip technologies from reaching China, Nvidia, a leading U.S.-based chipmaker, is reportedly developing a version of its artificial intelligence chips that aligns with these new regulations.
Sources familiar with the matter indicated that Nvidia is planning to launch its new Blackwell AI chips for the Chinese market, collaborating with a local distribution partner, Inspur. The chip, which is currently referred to as the “B20,” is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.
Nvidia has also designed three chips specifically to meet U.S. export control requirements, including the H20 chip, which the company has reduced prices for due to sluggish sales, aiming to remain competitive against domestic rival Huawei. Despite the challenges, sales of the H20 have reportedly been increasing, with estimates suggesting that Nvidia could sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, which could generate around $12 billion, as stated by the Financial Times, referencing data from SemiAnalysis. This projection nearly doubles Huawei’s expectations for its Ascend 910B chip sales.
However, analysts at Jefferies have warned that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face risks due to potential adjustments in U.S. trade policies. They noted that during the upcoming annual review of U.S. semiconductor export controls in October, it is highly probable that sales of the H20 chip to China could be prohibited. This ban could manifest in several ways, such as a specific prohibition on the product, stricter computing power limits, or memory capacity caps.
Additionally, analysts speculated that the U.S. might broaden export controls affecting chips sold to neighboring countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or apply similar restrictions to overseas Chinese companies, although such measures would be more challenging to enforce.