Nvidia’s AI Chip Gamble: Can They Beat Trade Restrictions?

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As the U.S. evaluates stricter trade restrictions aimed at preventing advanced chip technology from being exported to China, Nvidia, a prominent American chipmaker, is reportedly developing a modified version of its new artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these regulations.

Sources cited by Reuters indicate that Nvidia is collaborating with a local distributor, Inspur, to introduce and market the new chip in China, which is provisionally named the “B20.” This chip is projected to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has designed three chips specifically to meet U.S. export control requirements, including the H20, which the company recently reduced prices for due to sluggish sales in order to remain competitive against home-grown rival Huawei. Reports suggest that sales of the H20 chip are increasing, with expectations of over one million units selling in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite the ongoing U.S. trade limitations.

However, the H20 chips could face challenges under potential new U.S. trade regulations. Analysts from Jeffries noted that during the U.S. annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, it is very likely that the sale of the H20 to China will be prohibited. This prohibition could be enforced through various means, such as a specific product ban, restrictions on computing power, or limits on memory capacity.

Additionally, there are discussions regarding the possibility of extending export controls on chips sold to other Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or to overseas Chinese companies, although the latter may be more complex to implement, according to analysts.

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