Nvidia’s AI Chip Gamble: Adapting to U.S. Trade Tensions with China

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As the United States considers stricter trade measures to prevent advanced chip technology from being supplied to China, Nvidia, a prominent U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a new version of its artificial intelligence chips to comply with these regulations.

According to sources cited by Reuters, Nvidia is collaborating with a local partner, Inspur, to launch a chip tentatively named the “B20” specifically for the Chinese market. The B20 is expected to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has created three chips designed to adhere to U.S. export controls, including the H20, which was recently reduced in price to boost sales amid competition from domestic rival Huawei. Reports indicate that sales for the H20 are now increasing, with Nvidia potentially poised to sell over one million units in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite ongoing trade restrictions.

However, analysts from Jeffries have raised concerns that Nvidia’s H20 chips might face challenges under additional U.S. trade regulations. As the U.S. prepares for its annual review of semiconductor export controls in October, there is a strong possibility that the H20 could be prohibited from sales to China. Analysts suggest that this ban could be implemented in several ways, such as through a specific ban on the product, lowering the computing power threshold, or restricting memory capacity.

Furthermore, there is the potential for the U.S. to broaden its export controls to include chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or to overseas Chinese companies, although the latter could be more complicated to enforce.

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