Nvidia Navigates New Trade Waters with China: What’s Next?

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As the United States considers stricter trade regulations to prevent cutting-edge chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a prominent U.S. chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a variant of its latest artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these new rules.

According to sources cited by Reuters, Nvidia is collaborating with the Chinese distributor Inspur to launch and sell a chip provisionally named the “B20” in the Chinese market. The B20 is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025, though Nvidia has chosen not to comment on the matter.

Nvidia currently has three chips designed to comply with U.S. export controls, including the H20, for which the company reduced prices to compete with domestic rival Huawei amid sluggish sales. Fortunately for Nvidia, H20 sales have reportedly begun to increase. It is estimated that the company will sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, with a projected value of around $12 billion, despite ongoing U.S. trade restrictions. This forecast nearly doubles Huawei’s expected sales for its Ascend 910B chip, according to data from SemiAnalysis.

However, Jeffries analysts caution that Nvidia’s H20 chips may face challenges from future U.S. trade policies. In an annual review of semiconductor export controls scheduled for October, they suggest that there is a significant likelihood that the H20 could be prohibited from being sold to China. The analysts outline three potential methods for a ban: a specific product ban, a reduction in the computing power cap, or a cap on memory capacity.

Additionally, the U.S. may consider broadening export restrictions on chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or extend these controls to overseas Chinese companies, although the latter would pose more implementation challenges, according to analyst insights.

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