Nvidia Navigates New Trade Waters: Is China’s AI Chip Market at Risk?

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As the United States evaluates stricter trade measures to prevent advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to align with these regulations.

According to reports from Reuters, Nvidia is focusing on a model of its new Blackwell AI chips aimed at the Chinese market, working in conjunction with a local distributor, Inspur. This chip, provisionally named the “B20,” is set to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025.

Nvidia has three chips specifically designed to meet U.S. export control standards, including the H20, which the company has adjusted pricing on due to lackluster sales as it competes against domestic rival Huawei. Nevertheless, sources indicate that sales of the H20 chip are on the rise, with Nvidia anticipated to sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, valued around $12 billion despite existing trade limitations. This figure nearly doubles Huawei’s projected sales for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, analysts from Jefferies warned that Nvidia’s H20 chips might face challenges under potential new U.S. trade regulations. According to their analysis, there is a strong possibility that the H20 could be banned from sale in China during the annual review of semiconductor export controls scheduled for October. Such a ban could manifest in several forms, including a specific product ban, reductions in computing power limits, or restrictions on memory capacity.

Additionally, there is speculation that export controls could be expanded to include chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or potentially to overseas Chinese enterprises, though the latter would be more complex to enforce.

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