Nvidia Innovates Amid U.S.-China Chip Tensions: What’s Next?

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As the United States contemplates stricter trade regulations to restrict advanced chip technology from reaching China, Nvidia, a prominent U.S.-based chip manufacturer, is reportedly developing a modified version of its latest artificial intelligence chips to adhere to these potential rules.

According to sources familiar with the situation, Nvidia is creating a version of its Blackwell AI chips for the Chinese market. The company is expected to collaborate with local distributor Inspur to introduce and market this chip, provisionally named the “B20,” in China.

The B20 is anticipated to begin shipping in the second quarter of 2025, as reported by a source. Nvidia has chosen not to comment on the matter.

The company currently has three chip models designed specifically to meet U.S. export regulations, including the H20, which it recently discounted due to weak demand in order to better compete with products from Chinese rival Huawei. Reports indicate that H20 sales are now on the rise. Nvidia is projected to sell over one million H20 chips in China this year, amounting to approximately $12 billion, despite existing trade limitations, according to data from SemiAnalysis cited by the Financial Times. This sales figure nearly doubles Huawei’s expected performance for its Ascend 910B chip.

However, analysts from Jefferies have cautioned that Nvidia’s H20 chips could face challenges under new U.S. trade rules. In light of the annual assessment of U.S. semiconductor export controls, which will take place in October, Jefferies analysts have noted that it is likely the H20 will be prohibited from being sold to China. This ban could be enacted in various ways, including a specific product ban, adjustments to the computing power limit, or restrictions on memory capacity.

Furthermore, the U.S. may also expand export controls affecting chips sold to other countries in the region, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, or potentially extend these controls to overseas Chinese companies, though the latter would be more complicated to enforce, as per the analysts.

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