Novo Nordisk’s recent challenges have drawn attention as the company’s share price has fallen approximately 55% since its peak last summer. This decline was exacerbated by a study published in The New England Journal of Medicine, which indicated that patients using Eli Lilly’s Zepbound experienced greater weight loss compared to those on Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy.
Despite these setbacks, many analysts on Wall Street remain optimistic about Novo Nordisk’s future. According to a survey conducted by the financial data provider LSEG, the average price target for the company’s stock over the next 12 months is projected to be $89.99, suggesting a potential uptick of 35% from its current valuation. Some analysts are even predicting price targets that are nearly double the current stock price.
The survey reflected varying views among analysts; while two viewed the stock as a strong buy and another four rated it as a buy, four analysts maintained a hold rating. However, even the least favorable price targets remain just 9% below the current share price, indicating a resilient outlook overall.
The optimism stems from Novo Nordisk’s impressive sales growth, largely credited to its semaglutide products, including the diabetes medication Ozempic and the obesity treatment Wegovy. The company is also on the verge of introducing new growth opportunities, with a pending U.S. approval for the oral version of semaglutide for treating obesity. They have also submitted a two-weekly dosage application for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and are preparing to file for a drug combining treatments for obesity and type 2 diabetes called CagriSema by early 2026.
However, the company is not without its challenges. Novo Nordisk recently lowered its full-year guidance for 2025, citing issues related to the compounding of semaglutide. CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen stressed the importance of expanding patient access while combating the illegal compounding of their products. Additionally, competition is intensifying, particularly from Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound, which are increasing their market presence.
Interestingly, Novo Nordisk has secured a significant victory in federal court related to the FDA’s ability to crack down on unlawful compounding, which may alleviate some pressures on their market position.
Overall, while current competition poses risks, the ongoing commercial potential of Ozempic and Wegovy, along with forthcoming innovations, hint at a promising recovery trajectory for Novo Nordisk. Whether the company can achieve the predicted 35% increase in stock value over the next year remains uncertain, but the prevailing sentiment suggests cautious optimism for investors.